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After EU enlargement and the conclusion of the Convention on the future
of the EU, the U.S. will face a more challenging EU - with respect to
its size, socio-economic, political and strategic importance. A key
question is whether the EU will maintain its capability to act,
especially in fields with high relevance for transatlantic relations
such as the Common Foreign and Security Policy(CFSP)/European Security
and Defense Policy(ESDP), armaments cooperation, trade and the
international fight against organized crime and terrorism.
The future EU members from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will try to
insert their specific foreign policy and security goals into Europe's
foreign and security policies. Many CEE countries give high priority to
close ties with the U.S. and the maintenance of strong transatlantic
bonds. Therefore, they may be opposed to any sort of integrated
European foreign policy and security efforts which could further
Euro-Atlantic decoupling. The CFSP will either become more
"Atlanticist" after enlargement or Eastern Atlanticists will have to
adjust to the framework of CFSP/ESDP. If neither occurs, a new
pro-American caucus in the bigger EU could result into a structural
split of CFSP/ESDP. In addition, the tendency of the CEE countries to
favour open-ended cooperation with the future direct Eastern Neighbours
(i.e. not excluding future membership) could cause further divisions
within the larger EU.
The question of whether there should be European-American coordination
in shaping the relations with the new Eastern neighbours depends, in
part, on EU and US considerations and strategies with regard to
structuring and stabilising the post-Soviet-area. These considerations
must take into account whether American views are closer to European
views or CEE views of the Eastern neighbours. There is also the
question of whether the U.S. would bring financial assistance into some
kind of coordinated EU/US-Eastern Neighbourhood-policy. Finally, to
what extent could CEE countries act as "hinge" between the U.S. and
Eastern "left-outs?"
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